NVIDIAddictbeta
LVL 1 · 0 XP

Command center · snapshot

Three steps ahead of the tape

Step 0 is what every screen shows. Steps 1 to 3 are the numbers that move before NVDA does. Read bottom-up.

The signal ladder

structural → tape

Next 90 days

tbc = date unconfirmed

    Revenue by quarter

    $B · hollow = est/guide

    Squawk box · daily digest

    What the desk will say before they say it

    Six chairs cover the whole TV desk, from the 6am sound-effects button to the 5pm options guy. Paste headlines and the desk writes a digest with the noise stripped, then predicts what each chair will say. Grade them; the desk keeps score.

    Today's digest

    rules engine

    Panel forecast

    signal share per seat

    Desk forecasts

    Once the backend is live, every digest ends with three graded forecasts: next-day direction, a 5-day level, a 5-day range.

    Track record

    the desk grades itself · Brier score, lower is better

    Blind tests

    sealed forecasts, opened against the tape

    Ask the desk

    One question at a time. It knows the snapshot, not the internet.

    Crash risk assessor

    How close is the cliff

    Eight factors, weighted. Defaults come from the snapshot; drag them to stress-test. The gauge is a composite, not a forecast.

    What flips it

      Factors

      What a crash has looked like

      peak-to-trough, approximate

      Growth projections

      Five futures, one expected value

      Each path compounds FY27 revenue for five years, applies a net margin and an exit multiple, and prices the stock. Edit the probabilities; the expected value updates.

      Scenarios

      click to inspect

      Probability-weighted 5-year target

      Price paths

      $/share, year-end

      Assumptions

      FY27 revenue base ≈ $404B (Q1 est $81.5B + Q2 $96.2B + Q3 guide $108B + Q4 est $118B). Shares 24.1B, shrinking 1.5%/yr on buybacks. Non-GAAP net margin was 56% last quarter.

      Money flows and fiat

      Where it comes from, where it goes

      One quarter of cash, followed end to end. Then the dollar, the yen, the yuan and the 10-year, with the mechanism by which each one reaches the share price.

      Q2 FY27 cash flow, $B

      hover any band · opex and tax are estimates

      Customer segments

      YoY growth

      ACIE (AI clouds, industrial, enterprise) now grows faster than hyperscale. That is the diversification the bear case says does not exist.

      Capital return capacity

      $B

      $26B returned in the quarter is under 0.5% of market cap. The stock is not being bought up by buybacks; it is being priced on the next guide.

      Fiat dashboard

      as of snapshot · FOMC

      Rate and dollar sensitivity

      rule-of-thumb model, not a forecast

      Forces on the price

      What is moving NVDA, by share of the move

      Each slice is the share of NVDA's recent daily variance that one economic force explains. The company-specific slice is what none of the outside forces can account for: earnings, guidance, policy, China.

      Weight of influence

      desk estimate

      The forces

      direction now · why it matters

        Table view

        Adjust the desk's weights

        renormalized to 100%

        Beginner desk

        Time machine and position builder

        What a lump sum or a monthly buy would have become, and what a position looks like today.

        Time machine

        Position builder

        Reading the print like a pro

        Call pricer

        Black-Scholes, no dividends

        IV crush simulator

        event tomorrow

        Theta decay of your call

        value vs days remaining, stock unchanged

        Strike ladder

        same expiry, same IV

        Arena

        Games that make you a better holder

        Every game pays XP. Every mistake pays a lesson. Chess is the flagship: your position against the market's pieces.

        Capex Chess

        your move

        Lesson

        Move a piece. Captures on either side trigger a lesson about the position that piece represents.

        Your pieces

        The market's

        Saved games

        Squawk Bullshit

        0 / 0

        A panelist just said this. Call it.

        Why this game

        President/Bullshit is a game about calling a lie with incomplete information. On the desk the lie is usually a true number with a false conclusion attached. Practice separating the two.

        Options Hold'em

        hand 1

        Scoring

        Each hand prices your call under three outcomes with the probabilities shown, before and after IV changes. Fold locks today's value. Call takes the distribution. Raise converts to a spread or rolls. The best action is the highest expected value. You score when you pick it.

        Earnings Blackjack

        bankroll: 100 shares

        The Market

        You

        Kelly corner

        NVIDY

        your move
        Master looks five moves ahead.

        Lesson

        How NVIDY works

        Prediction journal

        Your calls, on the record

        Log a call for the next close before the open. Grade it the next day. Streaks and badges live in this browser only.

        Today's call

        Record

          Badges

          Snapshot figures from NVIDIA's Q2 FY27 release (Aug 26, 2026) and market data as of the Sept 11, 2026 close. Estimates are marked. Nothing here is investment advice; it is a training ground for a concentrated holder. NVIDIAddict is an independent product of daddinvest and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by NVIDIA Corporation; NVIDIA is a trademark of NVIDIA Corporation. Not a broker, adviser, or fiduciary.